Sensitivity Analysis: JuMBOs Artificial Hypothesis

The 2024–2026 observational updates increase the artificial hypothesis posterior by 6–14 percentage points (from 14% baseline to 20–28% current range). The upper bound (28%) is reached if 2026–2027 Roman + ELT data confirm persistent wide-binary excess and deuterium depletion in older field populations.This Bayesian update strengthens the strategic case for: - Continued JuMBO population characterization - Spectroscopic surveys targeting deuterium abundance - Long-baseline astrometric monitoring - Gravitational wave detector sensitivity improvements The framework remains falsifiable via clear 2030 decision criteria tied to specific instruments and observational programs.