Spatial Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Rural Settlements in National New-Type Urbanization Pilot Areas: A Case Study of She County

Using She County, a national new-type urbanization comprehensive pilot area, as a case study, this research develops a multi-layered “static–dynamic–driver” analytical framework based on rural settlement data. By integrating GIS spatial overlay, landscape pattern indices, average nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density estimation, and cold–hotspot analysis, the study systematically characterizes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of rural settlements from 1980 to 2020. The results reveal that: (1) settlement evolution exhibits distinct phase-specific patterns, encompassing four primary types of transformation: localized expansion and consolidation, individual disappearance, rapid expansion, and the emergence of new settlements with peripheral extension; (2) landscape pattern and aggregation analyses indicate continuous growth in both total area and number of settlements, accompanied by increasing irregularity and fragmentation of patches; settlement size aggregation shows a fluctuating decline followed by recovery, overall spatial clustering intensity trends upward, and high-density kernel areas shift from the central–western to the northwestern region; (3) under multi-factor interactions, settlement layouts transitioned from an early “survival–location dependent” pattern dominated by natural constraints and transportation accessibility, to a mid-stage rapid aggregation driven by economic development and public service provision, ultimately evolving into a composite pattern balancing economic drivers and ecological constraints. The findings underscore the nonlinear superimposed effects of natural environment, economic development, transportation accessibility, public service availability, and ecological carrying capacity, providing a robust scientific basis for optimizing rural settlement spatial arrangements and informing rural development policy under the context of national new-type urbanization.