A Hybrid Fractal‐Fractional and Machine Learning Framework for Zika Virus Spread Prediction

We develop and analyze a Zika transmission model that couples mosquito‐borne and sexual pathways with host awareness and vector control interventions, assuming no disease‐induced mortality. The dynamics are formulated in a fractal‐fractional framework with order ℘ and fractal dimension ς , allowing memory and nonlocal effects. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established via compactness and a Banach fixed‐point argument, and Ulam–Hyers stability is derived for the integral equation representing the system. For computation, we design a fractional Adams–Bashforth scheme and report simulations using baseline parameters from the literature. One at a time, sensitivity experiments identify the dominant amplifiers of infection (mosquito biting b 2 and transmission probabilities, together with sexual contact c and α 2 ) and show that awareness a and vector control b suppress prevalence; the fractional parameters modulate persistence, with larger ℘ / ς prolonging transients. We further employ a feedforward artificial neural network as a surrogate to approximate the numerical solution, using a training, validation, testing split, and standard performance diagnostics. Finally, we compare operator choices integer, Caputo, Hilfer, Atangana–Baleanu in Caputo sense, and FF under identical settings; all memory‐bearing models decay more slowly than the classical system, with ABC/FF exhibiting the strongest persistence. Future research will extend this framework to spatially structured and seasonally varying settings, calibrated with surveillance data, to support optimal intervention design and real‐time decision‐making.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Mathematics
Published
2026-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1155/jom/9999891
Primary Topic
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

A Hybrid Fractal‐Fractional and Machine Learning Framework for Zika Virus Spread Prediction

Ramsha Shafqat, Abdelhamid Mohammed Djaouti, Ashraf Al-Quran, Ateq Alsaadi
Journal of Mathematics
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
article

A Hybrid Fractal‐Fractional and Machine Learning Framework for Zika Virus Spread Prediction

Ramsha Shafqat, Abdelhamid Mohammed Djaouti, Ashraf Al-Quran, Ateq Alsaadi
article en

Abstract

We develop and analyze a Zika transmission model that couples mosquito‐borne and sexual pathways with host awareness and vector control interventions, assuming no disease‐induced mortality. The dynamics are formulated in a fractal‐fractional framework with order ℘ and fractal dimension ς , allowing memory and nonlocal effects. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established via compactness and a Banach fixed‐point argument, and Ulam–Hyers stability is derived for the integral equation representing the system. For computation, we design a fractional Adams–Bashforth scheme and report simulations using baseline parameters from the literature. One at a time, sensitivity experiments identify the dominant amplifiers of infection (mosquito biting b 2 and transmission probabilities, together with sexual contact c and α 2 ) and show that awareness a and vector control b suppress prevalence; the fractional parameters modulate persistence, with larger ℘ / ς prolonging transients. We further employ a feedforward artificial neural network as a surrogate to approximate the numerical solution, using a training, validation, testing split, and standard performance diagnostics. Finally, we compare operator choices integer, Caputo, Hilfer, Atangana–Baleanu in Caputo sense, and FF under identical settings; all memory‐bearing models decay more slowly than the classical system, with ABC/FF exhibiting the strongest persistence. Future research will extend this framework to spatially structured and seasonally varying settings, calibrated with surveillance data, to support optimal intervention design and real‐time decision‐making.

Journal of MathematicsVol. 2026(1)
University of Lahore (PK), University of Sargodha (PK), Taif University (SA), King Faisal University (SA)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

A Hybrid Fractal‐Fractional and Machine Learning Framework for Zika Virus Spread Prediction — Ramsha Shafqat, Abdelhamid Mohammed Djaouti, et al. · Journal of Mathematics (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS