Burden of Ovarian Cancer in China Attributable to Asbestos Exposure During 1990–2021 and the Projections Through 2050

Objective: Ovarian cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women globally. Occupational asbestos exposure is a well-established risk factor. This study aimed to evaluate and project the burden of ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in China through 2050. Methods: Data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ovarian cancer due to asbestos exposure were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. Temporal trends in age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to disentangle the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Future disease burden through 2050 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: In 2021, asbestos-related ovarian cancer resulted in 357 deaths and 7,621 DALYs in China, accounting for 1.43% and 1.02% of the total ovarian cancer burden, respectively. The burden was highest among individuals aged 70– 74 years. Joinpoint analysis identified peaks in the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates around 2011. The age-period-cohort model revealed that rates increased with age. Projections indicate that by 2050, the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates will reach 0.0266 and 0.735 per 100,000, while the deaths and DALYs show an upward trend. Conclusion: The burden of ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in China has increased substantially and is projected to continue rising through 2050. These findings underscore the imperative for a complete ban on asbestos production and consumption in China. Keywords: ovarian cancer, asbestos exposure, mortality, China, projections