Causal Estimates of Multidimensional Well-being Under Hypothetical Forgiveness Shift Scenarios: Longitudinal Evidence From a National Panel in New Zealand

Forgiveness has been identified as a potential public health resource, but how might average well-being change if forgiveness were higher across the population? In this three-wave longitudinal study (Wave 1: 2018/2019 [T0], Wave 2: 2019/2020 [T1], Wave 3: 2020/2021 [T2]) with a nationally representative sample of New Zealanders ( N = 47928), we explore this question by investigating the potential causal effects of two hypothetical forgiveness shift scenarios on 23 indicators of physical health and health behavior, embodied well-being, ego-related well-being, reflective well-being, and social well-being approximately one year later. Using Targeted Learning within an outcome-wide analytic framework, we modeled (1) a targeted shift scenario in which those with below-average forgiveness were shifted to the average, and (2) a population-wide shift scenario in which all individuals were shifted up by one point on a 1-7 response scale for forgiveness. There was reliable evidence of better well-being on a majority of outcomes for both shift scenarios (individual-level average effects were generally very small), although effects were slightly stronger for the population-wide shift scenario. Effect sizes were generally stronger and more consistent for outcomes on psychosocial domains (e.g., reflective well-being) compared to physical health and health behavior. These findings suggest that widespread increases in forgiveness within a population, whether targeted to those low in forgiveness or promoted generally, may contribute to improving population well-being if forgiveness resources can be disseminated with broad reach and uptake at relatively low cost. • Outcome-wide causal analysis estimated well-being effects under two policy-like forgiveness shift scenarios. • Hypothetical shift scenarios raised low forgiveness or shifted the whole distribution upward. • Both shifts yielded very small average improvements in a majority of the 23 outcomes. • Population impact may be possible if forgiveness resources can be scaled at relatively low cost with broad reach and uptake. • Promising scalable options include self-directed workbooks and community forgiveness campaigns.