Exploring the Formation Pathways of UAV Industry Agglomeration Using Panel Data QCA

The agglomeration of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) industry is a key driver of the low-altitude economy. To understand how UAV industrial agglomeration emerges across cities with different socioeconomic foundations, this study investigates its dynamic configurational pathways. It develops an analytical framework that integrates the institutional environment, market conditions, and knowledge-based capabilities. Using panel data for 280 Chinese cities from 2017 to 2023, we apply panel data qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to identify configurational pathways toward UAV industrial agglomeration. Seven socioeconomic conditions are considered: science and technology expenditure, policy support, infrastructure, social consumption level, financial development, urban innovation capacity, and human capital. The results show that UAV industrial agglomeration arises from the joint effects of multiple conditions, not from any single factor. We identify six pathways that are grouped into three archetypes: institution–knowledge-driven, institution–market-driven, and multidimensional synergistic configurations. The dominant pathways shift over time and differ across city sizes. These findings provide macro-level evidence on the mechanisms underpinning UAV industrial agglomeration. They also offer implications for strengthening the UAV industrial ecosystem.