Forecasting workforce supply and demand in the construction industry: a system dynamics analysis

Purpose The global construction industry has been facing significant workforce supply and demand imbalances in recent years, impeding the successful delivery of construction projects and sustainable development of the industry. However, research examining the supply-demand dynamics of the construction workforce remains limited. Using China as a case study, this research employed a system dynamics (SD) approach to developing an SD model of construction workforce supply and demand, forecasting and analyzing workforce trends and evaluating multiple scenarios for addressing workforce imbalance problems. Design/methodology/approach An SD model was developed based on an extensive literature review and the group model building technique. Data collected from the Chinese construction industry were used for model validation and simulation. Findings The results indicated a projected substantial widening of the construction workforce supply–demand gap by 2035, with both supply and demand growth declining significantly over the next decade. Scenario-based simulations demonstrated that only two scenarios achieve supply–demand equilibrium during the study period, with the coordinated development scenario enabling stable balance by 2035. Notably, the workplace improvement priority is the most effective scenario in alleviating workforce shortages, while the technological innovation priority scenario can achieve the most significant workforce demand reduction. Originality/value These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry practitioners to developing multidimensional strategies so as to optimize workforce development in the construction industry.