THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE, TOURISM DEVELOPMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE: THE TODA-YAMAMOTO APPROACH

This study examines the causal relationships between exchange rates, tourism development, and economic growth in Trkiye using annual data covering the period 1995-2024.Given the foreign-exchange-generating nature of the tourism sector and its potential contribution to economic growth, analyzing these variables within an integrated framework is particularly important for economies exposed to macroeconomic volatility.Accordingly, the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach is employed in order to address potential differences in the integration orders of the variables.The empirical findings reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development, while a unidirectional causality is found running from tourism development to the exchange rate.However, no direct causal relationship is identified from the exchange rate to economic growth.Overall, the results suggest that tourism plays a strategic role in supporting economic growth in Trkiye and that tourism revenues may contribute to stabilizing foreign exchange markets.In this context, the study provides relevant implications for policymakers by offering a comprehensive assessment of the tourism-exchange rate-growth nexus.