Economic assessment of Chilean agricultural land use, labor demand and input requirements using the Delphi method. Part A: Fruits and nuts for fresh consumption

Fresh fruit production plays a central role in the agricultural sector of Chile, particularly under an export-led growth (ELG) model.This study aimed to examine the dynamics of Chilean fresh fruit production and market structure between 2017 and 2021, focusing on labor demand, agrochemical inputs, and export value evolution.Using a modified Delphi method, we estimated yield ranges and full-production area equivalents for key fruit crops, based on internal consumption, import/export volumes, and technical-economic standards.The real export value of fresh fruit increased by 24.4% over the study period, with cherries surpassing table grapes as the top exported crop, rising from US$545.6 million to US$1.80 billion.Export fruits accounted for 84.5% and 80.8% of national production in 2017 and 2021, yet 79.2% and 74.9% of total traded volumes, highlighting price differentials across international and domestic markets.Labor needs averaged 151-220 person-days ha -1 , with extremes ranging from 40 (mechanized nuts) to 488 (strawberries), being estimated that between 40.4 and 94.5 man-equivalent jobs are generated per 1000 t fruit traded.Pesticide use ranged from 7.82 to 20.07 kg ha -1 active ingredient, including copper-based compounds and dormancy-breaking agents, which significantly increase load in some crops.These values are within range of international benchmarks such as California and European fruit orchards.The results highlight the structural reliance on export markets and the high demand for labor, underscoring both the economic intensity and the environmental pressures of the fruit export sector in Chile.