Assessing Environmental Carrying Capacity and Disaster Risk in Spatial Utilization: A GIS-Based Study of East Java Province, Indonesia

Sustainable spatial development requires land-use allocation that aligns with reflects the environment’s biophysical capacity. However, rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion often result to spatial mismatches between land utilization and land capability, the reby increasing environmental degradation and disaster vulnerability. East Java Province, one of Indonesia’s most densely populated regions, has experienced significant land-use transformation driven by demographic pressure and economic development. This study aims to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity by assessing the spatial compatibility among land capability, existing land use, and the Provincial Spatial Plan (RTRWP) using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analytical approach. Land capability was determined based on key biophysical parameters, including slope gradient, soil texture, drainage conditions, erosion susceptibility, effective soil depth, and flood hazard. Spatial overlay analysis was employed to identify areas of conformity and mismatch between land capability and both current and planned land uses. The results indicate that only approximately 52% of the provincial area is utilised in accordance with its land capability. In comparison, the remaining 48% exhibits varying degrees of spatial mismatch. Erosion is identified as the dominant limiting factor, affecting more than 43% of the region, particularly in mountainous and hilly landscapes. Furthermore, over 60% of East Java falls within Land Capability Classes III–VII, indicating moderate to severe environmental constraints on limitations intensive land use. High levels of spatial mismatch are concentrated in the southern upland districts—such as Pacitan, Trenggalek, southern Malang, and Lumajang, which are highly susceptible to landslides, as well as in the northern lowland corridor, including the Surabaya–Gresik–Sidoarjo metropolitan region, which faces a significantly flood risk. These findings suggest that land-use practices exceeding environmental carrying capacity substantially amplify disaster risk. Therefore, integrating land capability assessment into spatial planning and zoning regulations is essential and for promoting ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction and achieving sustainable spatial development in East Java Province.