A WEAKENING ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION (AMOC) AS A GLOBAL CLIMATE–ECONOMIC SHOCK: LESSONS FROM THE YOUNGER DRYAS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY, MARINE RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC STABILITY

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a critical component of Earth’s climate system, regulating heat, salinity, nutrient transport and atmospheric circulation across the globe. Paleoclimatic evidence from the Younger Dryas (12,900–11,700 years BP) demonstrates that abrupt freshwater forcing from melting ice sheets can push AMOC beyond a threshold, triggering rapid cooling, ecosystem collapse and socio-economic disruption. In the contemporary context, accelerated melting of Greenland glaciers has increased freshwater influx into the North Atlantic, raising concerns about a similar climate shock. This study examines AMOC weakening as a systemic risk to global economic stability by analysing secondary climatic, oceanographic and economic datasets from national and international agencies. Using trend analysis and comparative historical validation, the study links AMOC slowdown with erratic monsoon behaviour, marine productivity decline, food-system instability and heightened economic vulnerability—particularly in Europe and monsoon-dependent economies such as India. The findings suggest that continued weakening of AMOC may lead to irreversible climate–economic transitions, threatening global production chains, livelihoods and geopolitical stability. The study underscores the urgent need to integrate ocean-circulation risk into economic and climate policy frameworks.