Investigating the Impact of Public En-Route and Depot Charging for Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks Using Agent-Based Transport Simulation and Probabilistic Grid Modeling

This study presents an integrated simulation framework that combines agent-based transport modeling with probabilistic load-flow analysis to quantify power system loading of long-haul heavy-duty electrification. The approach is applied to a case study considering fully electrified road freight in the Skåne region in Sweden, using high-resolution transport demand data and the actual power grid model used by the grid owner in the study area. The synthetic freight population covers the full long-haul truck segment intersecting Skåne. Both public en-route fast charging and end-of-trip depot charging are considered. The analysis reveals two fundamentally different charging demand profiles: a heavily fluctuating profile for public en-route charging, accounting on average for 82% of the total daily charging energy, and a stable profile for end-of-trip depot charging, covering on average the remaining 18%. The latter is achieved through a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that flattens the load by scheduling charging across depot stay windows. These profiles serve as inputs to a probabilistic load-flow simulation that computes loading distributions for substation transformers. The simulation results show that in 4 of the 43 primary substations studied, the maximum transformer loading exceeds 100% following the introduction of truck charging, with peak loading at the most affected substation rising from 99% to 159%. This stress is primarily caused by the public charging demand, which peaks from late morning to noon, aligning with the early stages of logistics operations. However, there is no clear correlation between the magnitude of the truck charging load and the impact on transformer loading, since this is also highly dependent on local grid conditions. These findings highlight the value of integrated transport-energy simulations for planning resilient infrastructure and guiding targeted grid reinforcements.