Risk factors of at fault and casualty severity for young drivers: a logistic model analysis of Guangdong, China

Young drivers are among the most vulnerable groups in traffic accidents, showing a significant association with risky driving behaviors and increased susceptibility to injury and fatality. However, existing research largely focuses on developed countries and often neglects the distinct conditions in rapidly motorizing contexts like China, such as limited driving experience, poor infrastructure, and weaker traffic law enforcement. To address this gap, this study analyzes 78,668 administrative traffic accident records involving young drivers from China’s Ministry of Public Security between 2006 and 2014, accounting for temporal shifts in safety technology and infrastructure. The research investigates the risk factors linked to at fault and casualty severity among young drivers, compares behavioral risk patterns between young and non-young drivers, and explores how young drivers behave across different violation types. Results show that in China, young drivers are about twice as likely as older drivers to be at fault in accidents and have a higher probability of being involved in crashes with casualties, especially in severe cases. Their inexperience is associated with heightened risks under complex conditions like nighttime driving. Notably, an Expressway Paradox is identified, where expressways are associated with lower at fault risk but significantly higher casualty severity. Key violations—unlicensed driving, drunk driving, speeding, aggressive driving, and disobeying traffic signals—are significantly correlated with young drivers' elevated at fault rates. However, these illegal behaviors do not necessarily correspond to greater casualty severity. The study reveals that different violations show heterogeneous associations with accident outcomes and emphasizes the need to distinguish between at fault risk and casualty risk. These findings provide important insights for policymakers in developing countries to design targeted interventions, such as enhanced driver education, stricter licensing processes, and context-specific enforcement strategies, to improve traffic safety outcomes for young drivers.