Bikeways and Sustainable University Mobility in Medium-Sized Cities: A Geospatial Analysis of Potential Use in Loja, Ecuador

University mobility in medium-sized cities faces increasing challenges arising from traffic congestion, urban sprawl, and the limited availability of sustainable transport options. In this context, the bicycle represents an efficient and environmentally low-impact alternative, provided that safe and connected infrastructure exists to facilitate its adoption. This study assesses the potential for bicycle use in the Andean city of Loja, Ecuador, taking as a case study the university community of the Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja (UTPL). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools, origin–destination (OD) matrices, and logistic models were integrated to analyze the relationship between three key variables: terrain slope, minimum travel time, and the percentage of protected cycling infrastructure. The results show that protected cycling infrastructure shows the strongest positive association with the modeled probability of use, while slopes greater than 15% and trips longer than twenty minutes are associated with lower modeled probabilities. The geospatial analysis identified priority corridors where improvements in cycling protection would yield higher modeled modal returns. It is concluded that strengthening cycling connectivity and the continuity of protected routes may inform scenario-based planning to support active university mobility, offering a replicable framework for medium-sized cities with similar topographic conditions.