Spatiotemporal Biomass Changes of Tree Stands at the Upper Limit of Their Distribution in the Altai-Sayan Mountains in the Past and near Future

Global warming, which is mainly linked to CO2 increase, has led to a growing interest in assessing carbon conservation in forest biomass. Despite evidence that treelines have advanced by hundreds of meters, knowledge of associated stand biomass changes is insufficient for comprehensive estimation of their role in carbon sequestration. Traditionally, the biomass assessment is based on data collected by field measurements. While this approach provides accurate data for local sites, it cannot be extrapolated properly to larger areas. A more appropriate approach would be to combine field measurements with remote sensing methods. We used data obtained by tree morphometry and annual ring measurements, model-based biomass estimation, processing of laser scanning results, and satellite imagery to model and calculate changes in stand above-ground biomass (AGB) since 1900 at treeline ecotone in Altai and Western Sayan. We developed simulations to predict AGB changes over the coming four decades in these regions. Our findings revealed that the upslope shift of the treeline ecotone by 58–86 m of altitude over the past century was accompanied by an exponential increase in AGB of stands within the 200–400 m forest–tundra transition zone. This resulted in an AGB increment of 120–139 tons per 100 m of treeline. We expect that stand AGB at the treeline ecotone will become 2.3–3.3 times bigger by 2060. All exposures must be considered when estimating stand AGB within treeline ecotones because there are significant differences in treeline elevation, tree-dominant proportions, and stand structure on different slopes.