An Early Warning Method Based on Transformer–Attention–LSTM Hybrid Framework for Landslides in the Red Bed Sedimentary Layers in Western Sichuan, China: Implications for Sustainable Hazard Mitigation

Global climate change and increasingly complex geological conditions have led to more frequent landslides in the red-bed sedimentary layers of western Sichuan, China, posing severe threats to human safety and hindering progress toward regional Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to disaster risk reduction and ecological protection. To address this challenge and advance sustainable disaster management, this study proposes a lightweight hybrid model, termed Transformer–Attention–LSTM, which integrates the global attention mechanism of Transformers with the local time-series modeling capabilities of Long Short-Term Memory networks. Focusing on the Kuyaogou landslide, the model achieves an optimal balance between parameter scale, sequence length, and prediction accuracy. The mean Coefficient of Determination (R2) values for the test samples in the X, Y, and Z directions reached 0.948, representing enhancements of 9.9%, 4.2%, and 2.3%, respectively, compared to the suboptimal Attention–LSTM model. Concurrently, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were reduced to 9.23 mm and 7.17 mm, respectively. Based on these displacement predictions, the landslide evolution stage was determined by calculating the tangent angle, indicating that the Kuyaogou landslide will remain in a stable creep phase over the ensuing ten-day period with low overall risk of rapid movement, though localized instability requires continued monitoring. This research provides a ‘small, fast, and accurate’ paradigm for red-bed landslide displacement prediction, offering scientific support for disaster prevention and emergency decision-making. The framework demonstrates potential for broader application in monitoring other geological hazards, thereby contributing to the implementation of sustainable development strategies in geohazard-prone regions.