Global sunflower oil trade under COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict: a complex network analysis of food system resilience and sustainable finance dynamics

This study investigates how recent global crises have reshaped the sunflower oil trade network and what these shifts mean for the environmental sustainability and financial resilience of agri-food systems. Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, we analyze export flows from 2019 to 2022 using complex network techniques to identify changes in structural connectivity, core–periphery patterns and country-level influence. The findings show that Ukraine and India remained the most central actors in the network throughout the period, while 2022 marked a significant reorganization: Türkiye and Russia rose in prominence following the Grain Corridor initiative, signaling the emergence of alternative regional trade pathways. Despite these geopolitical shocks, the network preserved a dense and highly interconnected structure, revealing persistent interdependence among major producers and import-dependent economies. However, several key trade relationships weakened or shifted, illustrating the sensitivity of global edible-oil supply chains to geopolitical disruptions. These dynamics are closely linked to climate-sensitive agricultural systems, with implications for land-use pressures, food security risks, and the vulnerability of environmentally exposed importing countries. The study further highlights how sustainable finance mechanisms—including risk-responsive investment strategies and resilience-oriented funding models—can support the stability of edible-oil supply chains by addressing the concentration, dependency and reconfiguration patterns identified in the trade network under rising climate and geopolitical uncertainty. Network results were validated through cross-year structural consistency checks, ensuring methodological robustness. Overall, the analysis provides timely evidence on the reconfiguration of sunflower oil trade and offers insights relevant to SDG2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG13 (Climate Action), contributing to efforts to build more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems.