Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of <i>Arabidopsis</i>

Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution experiments with <i>Arabidopsis thaliana</i> in 30 locations across Western Europe, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of ~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary adaptation. We identified genetic variants linked to climate adaptation, including genes involved in processes ranging from thermal-stress sensing to spring-flowering timing. Evolutionary trends were often predictable, but variable, across environments. In warmer climates, evolutionary predictability correlated with population survival over 5 years, whereas erratic changes preceded extinction. These results show that rapid climate adaptation is possible, but understanding its limits will be crucial for biodiversity forecasting.

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Journal
Science
Published
2026-03-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adz0777
Primary Topic
Genetic diversity and population structure
Type
article
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article

Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis

Agnieszka Rudak, Arthur Korte, Lucas Czech, Patricia L. M. Lang et al.
Science
Genetic diversity and population structure
article

Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis

Agnieszka Rudak, Arthur Korte, Lucas Czech, Patricia L. M. Lang, Liana T. Burghardt, Maciej Wódkiewicz, Joy Bergelson, Basten L. Snoek, Tatiana Bellagio, Timothy C. Morton, John R. Stinchcombe, Pamela Korte, Zuzana Münzbergová, Martijn van Zanten, Niklas Reichelt, Mohamed Abdelaziz, Merav Seifan, Karin Koehl, Alexander Kutschera, Elena Hamann, Modesto Berbel, Xi Wu, Alexandros Galanidis, Steven J. Franks, Daniel Maag, Carolin Delker, Robert I. Colautti, Arnald Marcer, Marcel Quint, Jake M. Alexander, Marc Stift, Gregor Schmitz, Mark A. Taylor, Peter Tiffin, Panayiotis G. Dimitrakopoulos, Felix Fritschi, Meixi Lin, Laura Leventhal, Anna Traveset, Ruth Epstein, Alfredo Garcia, I. Till-Bottraud, Ana García-Muñoz, Mireille Caton-Darby, Carlos Alonso-Blanco, Juliette de Meaux, Allison Hutt, Heidi Lie Andersen, José M. Iriondo, Yunru Peng, Vigdis Vandvik, Jean-Gabriel Valay, Thomas E. Juenger, Belén Méndez-Vigo, Gema Escribano-Avila, Martí March-Salas, François Vasseur, J. F. Scheepens, Brandie Quarles-Chidyagwai, Meelis Pärtel, Detlef Weigel, Carlos Lara-Romero, Moises Exposito-Alonso, Remco Stam, Oliver Bossdorf, Hanna Akiko Nomoto, Walter Durka, Johanna Schmitt, Anne Muola, Kathleen Donohue, Cyrille Violle, Javier Morente-López, Stephen R. Keller, F. Xavier Picó
article en

Abstract

Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution experiments with <i>Arabidopsis thaliana</i> in 30 locations across Western Europe, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of ~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary adaptation. We identified genetic variants linked to climate adaptation, including genes involved in processes ranging from thermal-stress sensing to spring-flowering timing. Evolutionary trends were often predictable, but variable, across environments. In warmer climates, evolutionary predictability correlated with population survival over 5 years, whereas erratic changes preceded extinction. These results show that rapid climate adaptation is possible, but understanding its limits will be crucial for biodiversity forecasting.

ScienceVol. 391(6792)
University of Vermont (US), Goethe University Frankfurt (DE), Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (IL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Minnesota (US), Pennsylvania State University (US), Howard Hughes Medical Institute (US), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE), École Pratique des Hautes Études (FR), Fordham University (US), Duke University (US), Universidad de Granada (ES), University of Cologne (DE), Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (ES), University of Toronto (CA), University of Konstanz (DE), Utrecht University (NL), Carnegie Institution for Science (US), Université de Montpellier (FR), Czech Academy of Sciences (CZ), Queen's University (CA), Charles University (CZ), University of Würzburg (DE), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE), ETH Zurich (CH), University of Chicago (US), Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES), Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive (FR), Laboratoire de Géographie Physique et Environnementale (FR), Carnegie Department of Plant Biology (US), University of Clermont Auvergne (FR), Centro Nacional de Biotecnología (ES), Max Planck Institute of Molecular Plant Physiology (DE), Innovative Genomics Institute (US), Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (ES), Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES), Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany (CZ), Stiftung Juliusspital (DE), Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NO), Grupo ACS (Spain) (ES), Max Planck Institute for Biology (DE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf (DE), University of Bergen (NO), University of Warsaw (PL), University of Tartu (EE), New York University (US), Technical University of Munich (DE), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (DE), University of Missouri (US), University of Tübingen (DE), University of California, Davis (US), The University of Texas at Austin (US), Université Grenoble Alpes (FR), University of California, Berkeley (US), Stanford University (US), University of the Aegean (GR)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Genetic diversity and population structure
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