Climate, Land, and Bears: Exploring habitat suitability of Asian bears under environmental changes

We aimed to assess the impacts of climate and land-use alterations on the Asian habitats of four bear species black bear, brown bear, sloth bear, and sun bear using ensemble framework. We utilized two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 along with future LULC A1b and A2. Models were calibrated using environmentally filtered primary and secondary occurrence records and evaluated using repeated train-test splits, yielding strong predictive performance (ensemble TSS median = 0.79-0.86 across species). The analysis showed that ∼10% of the area has been identified as suitable habitat for Asian bears within Asia’s vast 41.74 million km 2 landscape, highlighted that climate, elevation, and forest cover are the most influential factors shaping the habitat distribution of Asian bears. Future projections for 2050 and 2070 indicated species-specific widespread shifts in habitat suitability. Suitable habitat is projected to decline most strongly for sloth bear and sun bear, with reductions of approximately 29.16%-57.56% by 2070 depending on emission scenario. Asiatic black bear shows moderate regional redistribution with partial range contraction, while brown bear exhibits comparatively greater stability in climatically suitable environments. These findings highlighted substantial future redistribution of suitable habitat for all 4 bears across Asia and identified regions where environmental suitability may persist under climate change, especially, Hindu Kush Himalayas emerged as a vital habitat, featuring significant suitable habitat for three bear species. These findings underscore the necessity for adaptive, cross-border conservation approaches like transboundary protected areas, policy harmonization and legal frameworks that prioritize climate refugia and strategies to reduce human-bear conflicts to ensure the survival of these essential species in the face of environmental change. • Present study conducted the first Asia-wide ensemble SDM assessment of habitat suitability for all four Asian bear species. • Future projections suggested widespread habitat loss, with sloth and sun bears most vulnerable by 2070 under different climatic and landuse scenarios. • Climate, elevation, and forest cover emerged as the key drivers shaping bear distributions across Asia. • The Hindu Kush Himalaya was identified as a major climate refugium and multi-species conservation priority for black bear, brown bear and sun bear. • Results underscore the need for transboundary, climate-adaptive conservation and conflict mitigation for Asian bears.