Hydrological drought projections across Europe under climate change

Abstract Although drought is a natural hazard, growing global concern surrounds its increasing frequency and severity due to climate change. Projections indicate that drought conditions are expected to intensify worldwide in the future, and Europe is no exception. Therefore, understanding the pattern and characteristics of future drought is crucial to developing region-specific adaptation strategies to enhance resilience. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of future hydrological drought dynamics across Europe using the standardized runoff index (SRI). SRI was calculated at 1- and 3-month timescales for the historical period (1990–2014) and near-future period (2015–2049) based on downscaled climate data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, where SSP stands for shared socioeconomic pathways. The findings reveal an intensification of hydrological drought conditions, particularly in southern Europe. Notable increases in the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of drought events are observed, especially in countries such as France, Spain, and the Balkans. Seasonal analysis highlights spring as the most drought-prone season under both scenarios. These results underscore the urgent need for seasonally adaptive water management strategies to better anticipate future drought risks and strengthen regional resilience.