BUCK FOR THE BANG: THE GUNS OR GROWTH CASE OF TÜRKİYE

This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of military expenditure on economic growth and private expenditure in Türkiye over 1960–2023 using a nonlinear empirical strategy that allows for smooth structural breaks. Conventional time-series approaches often overlook parameter instability in economies subject to recurrent political and geopolitical shocks; to address this, the analysis employs the Fourier-ADF and flexible Fourier-ADF unit root tests, Fourier-ADL cointegration method, and Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality procedure. The results show clear evidence of cointegration between military expenditure, economic growth, and private expenditure. Long-run elasticities indicate that a 1% rise in military spending increases economic growth by 1.129% and private expenditure by 1.214%. However no short-run causality is detected. Overall, the findings reject the burden, neutrality, and crowding-out hypotheses, demonstrating instead that military expenditure has contributed positively to Türkiye’s long-term economic performance.