Vulnerabilidad espacial de las áreas productivas de papa en Colombia bajo escenarios de cambio climático

The potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is an essential crop in Colombia’s high Andean regions, where smallholder farmers rely on production systems that are highly sensitive to climate variability and have limited adaptation options. Rising temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns are already placing significant pressure on these systems, especially those dependent on rainfed agriculture. The aim of this study was to characterize future climatic conditions as a foundation for assessing the spatiotemporal climate vulnerability of potato-producing regions in Colombia under climate change scenarios. To accomplish this, we integrated in situ observations from 296 meteorological stations with synthetic climate datasets, specifically WorldClim and CHELSA, and validated their performance under local conditions. We also developed a weighted multi-model ensemble using nine General Circulation Models aligned with the RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios to project potential changes in temperature and precipitation across the country’s major potato-growing areas. To better contextualize these projections, we defined homologous climate zones and applied the Lang index and a proposed index for water deficit and excess as an indicator of vulnerability associated with water availability. The results reveal substantial variation among models and scenarios, emphasizing the importance of ensemble approaches calibrated with historical local data. In addition, we found a clear trend toward increasing aridification and a reduction in suitability for potato cultivation in several regions. These findings highlight the need for timely adaptation strategies and for strengthening agricultural planning using reliable climate information.