Landscape structure effects on climate regulation ecosystem service in a global south megacity

The intensification of urbanization has exacerbated the urban heat islands effect, potentially amplifying energy consumption and posing risks to thermal comfort and human health. Urban vegetation offers significant potential for mitigating extreme thermal events and reducing surface urban heat island effects. However, effective urban planning requires considering the interactions between vegetation and built structures, rather than solely focusing on green cover parameters. Considering this interaction and three-dimensional metrics, we applied a spatially explicit approach and linear mixed models to evaluate how the landscape structure impacts the climate regulation ecosystem services provision chain in São Paulo (Brazil), the largest metropolis in the Southern Hemisphere. While composition metrics, particularly total vegetation cover, are the primary factors explaining local climate regulation service supply, configuration metrics also significantly influence this service. Specifically, vegetation edge density positively impacted service supply, whereas building edge density had a negative effect. Additionally, arboreal volume and the interface between vegetated and built areas contributed to lowering land surface temperatures, suggesting that green spaces should be not only abundant but also strategically distributed in fragmented patches to maximize contact with built surfaces and enhance urban cooling. Furthermore, our analysis revealed spatial mismatches between service supply and demand, identifying high-risk areas where insufficient climate regulation could exacerbate health vulnerabilities during extreme events. These findings offer crucial insights for urban planners, highlighting the need to expand green areas and integrate them within built environments, especially in locations where supply does not meet local demand, in order to enhance adaptive capacity to heat. • Urbanization increases urban heat islands, but landscape structure role is unclear • Spatially evaluate climate regulation ecosystem service provision in São Paulo • Although vegetation cover effect is stronger, landscape configuration has a key role • Identified areas with climate regulation ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches • Provide key insights for public policies aiming to mitigate climate change effects