Risk analysis of buried natural gas pipelines using an integrated cloud model and failure mode and effects analysis approach

• A novel integrated FMEA method is proposed for risk analysis of pipelines safety. • The cloud model is used to handle randomness and uncertainty. • A synthetic dynamic weighting method is provided to determine the weights of experts. • A new integrated weighting method is proposed to determine the risk factor weights. • Risk analysis of buried natural gas pipelines is conducted to validate the proposed method. Buried natural gas pipeline leaks can cause significant harm to life, property, and environment. Thus, the risk analysis of buried natural gas pipelines is essential. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) has been widely utilized for engineering risk assessment. The current study provides a new integrated risk analysis method based on cloud model and FMEA with some merits over other conventional approaches. First, this method absorbs the virtue of cloud model in reflecting the randomness and fuzziness of experts’ linguistic assessment in case of insufficient information. Second, a hybrid dynamic algorithm enhanced with dimensionally reduction technique is proposed to determine expert weight, considering the individual information and the agreement degree of assessments. Third, a new integrated weighting method combined with the simplified best-worst method and cloud-entropy method is applied to compute the risk factors’ weights, which can fully reflect the risk factors’ relative importance. Fourth, the risk ranking based on compromise strategy is obtained by using the decision logic of VIKOR (Multi-criteria Optimization and Compromise Solution) to seek a compromise between group utility and individual regret. The detailed processes of the methodology are described by implementing risk analysis of the buried natural gas pipeline system of a gas field in China. The proposed model successfully prioritized 27 failure modes, revealing that failures related to mechanical and thermal stress within the corrosion effect category constitute the highest risk. These findings provide clear guidance for pipeline operators to allocate inspection and maintenance resources more effectively, enhancing overall pipeline safety and integrity.