Current and future climate change impacts on Indigenous lifestyle and cultural values in Ovalau, Fiji

Many <em>iTaukei</em> (Indigenous Fijian) communities maintain traditional lifestyles that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a reliance on small-scale subsistence agriculture and fisheries, and the deep cultural connections between people, communities, and the environment. Quantitative analyses of climate impacts in the Pacific region are hampered by a lack of historical data measuring environmental change, resource productivity, or cultural values. Therefore, this study uses a structured elicitation method to estimate recent impacts based on the expert knowledge, experiences, and perceptions of local Indigenous communities from six villages on the island of Ovalau, Fiji. Workshops were conducted in the local language to elicit data for proportional decreases in agricultural production, fisheries, and water security. Impacts were also elicited for 10 measures relating to cultural values and practices, e.g., social cohesion and well-being, <em>veiwasei</em> (i.e., food sharing within villages), and <em>Vanua</em> (i.e., multi-dimensional cultural connections to land). Most participants identified reductions across almost all of the 13 elicited measures, often identifying decreases of over 50% for each measure within the last 20 years. These perceived changes to subsistence production and cultural values are combined with historical climate data for Ovalau in a Bayesian network modeling framework, to estimate potential loss under future climate scenarios. This work highlights a strong perception of recent climate loss and damage among Ovalau’s communities and also demonstrates an innovative new approach for estimating historical climate impacts and predicting future changes based on the experiences, knowledge, and expertise of Indigenous communities.