Urban Expansion and the Future of Agricultural Land in Adapazari, Türkiye: Integrating LPIS Data with CA-Markov Modeling

Agricultural land is increasingly affected by rapid and uncontrolled urban expansion processes. The intensification of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, driving by rising population densities in urban areas, poses significant threats to environmental sustainability and agricultural land resources. Focusing on the city of Adapazari, this study aims to simulate future urban growth and assess its potential impact on agricultural land loss by integrating Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) modeling with Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) data. Using satellite images from 1990, 2005, and 2020, LULC changes were analysed and projected for the years 2035 and 2050. The model achieved a high level of accuracy with an overall agreement of 93% and a strong Kappa coefficient. Simulation results indicate that by 2050, settlement areas could increase by about 82%, primarily at the expense of agricultural land. LPIS-based analysis shows that 3,173 ha of agricultural land, including arable lands, grassland, and hazelnut, are at risk of conversion to urban use. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable urban planning policies that protect fertile agricultural land while accommodating urban growth. This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers and urban planners concerned with balancing development and environmental preservation in rapidly urbanizing regions.