Anticipatory governance of a maritime mission using a real-time mission-oriented transition assessment

• Real-time mission-oriented transition assessment (MOTA) is presented. • Real-time MOTA helps policymakers co-anticipate mission barriers. • A conceptualization and typology of mission barriers is proposed. • A real-time MOTA with 124 stakeholders of a Dutch maritime mission is conducted. • Real-time MOTA appears suited for early explorations of mission barriers. Anticipatory governance supports mission-oriented innovation policy by identifying, mitigating, and preparing for barriers that impede socio-technical transformations. While recent research introduced the Mission-Oriented Transition Assessment as a formative approach to mission governance, we insufficiently understand how this approach helps govern missions over a sustained period. This study applies a ‘real-time’ Mission-Oriented Transition Assessment to yield longitudinal insights into how mission barriers are foreseen, constructed, and responded to by stakeholders. We do so in the context of the Dutch maritime mission ‘Climate neutral shipping by 2050′. The results of 14 assessments over a period of 1.5 years with 124 stakeholder representatives show how 19 mission barriers are collectively anticipated, explicated, and acted upon. As such, this paper conceptualizes and empirically explores the usefulness of a ‘real-time’ Mission-Oriented Transition Assessment as a formative approach to anticipatory mission governance.