Predictive models for planning seasonality: The Algarve’s case

During the summer, a higher influx of tourists overwhelms local healthcare services. This pressure exacerbates the shortage of professionals and hinders the efficient management of hospitals and health centers. The overall objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between tourism seasonality and the demand for healthcare in Algarve (Portugal). The specific objectives are: to identify seasonal challenges in the demand for healthcare services and discuss solutions to optimize resource allocation. A selected machine learning model shows that the impact of overnight stays in tourist accommodations outweighs the impact of the resident population on visits to emergency services in the public healthcare sector. This behavior highlights the importance of tourism as a structural factor in the demand for emergency services. Future planning should consider this kind of models and algorithms in incorporating these issues for better service quality and productivity.