Investigation of base flow changes in Konya Closed Basin

Base flow is the portion of streamflow that originates from groundwater discharge and sustains river flow during dry spells. It is crucial for maintaining ecological balance, water availability, and long-term hydrological stability, especially in semi-arid regions with limited surface water supplies. This analysis used daily flow data (m³/s) from six sites in the Konya Closed Basin (KCB) sub-basins from 1987 to 2022. The base flows of these regions were ascertained using the sliding interval method, fixed interval method, and local minimum method. The Mann-Kendall (MK) method was used to determine trends in the computed base flows. To explore the base flow change of the KCB, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Kriging interpolation maps were used. The Mann-Kendall method results show that the KCB has a statistically significant decreasing trend with 95% confidence. The base flow on the IDW interpolation map ranges from 0.07 to 17 m³/s. The base flow value on the Kriging interpolation map ranges from 0.27 to 9 m³/s. Climate change is putting the Konya Closed Basin at significant danger of drought, which will result in rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and groundwater depletion. These changes are leading to declining base flow levels and increasing water scarcity, threatening agriculture and ecosystem sustainability.