Mission-aware Model Predictive Control for tactical microgrids under monsoon uncertainty

Tactical microgrids in remote and mission-critical environments must ensure reliable power, reduce fuel use, and maintain acoustic stealth under uncertain renewable generation. However, most existing control strategies are either rule-based or single-objective, limiting their ability to handle these conflicting goals in real time. This paper proposes a mission-aware Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework for a hybrid PV–battery–diesel microgrid, introducing the concept of the Energy–Maneuver Paradox —a formal characterization of the inherent multi-objective conflict between power reliability, acoustic stealth, and fuel endurance in tactical operation. The framework embeds mission priorities into the dispatch problem through a rolling-horizon MILP solved at each 15-minute update interval. A key operational mechanism is the Survival Override , a mission-specific instantiation of soft-constrained MPC that protects battery reserves under solar forecast uncertainty and prevents mission-critical energy shortages. The framework is validated through co-simulation using Python and DIgSILENT PowerFactory with realistic monsoon solar data. The proposed controller achieves a 61.9% reduction in fuel consumption compared to the heuristic baseline and sustains up to 20 h of continuous silent operation while maintaining voltage stability. Under a persistent 15% solar forecast bias, the controller preserves zero critical load shedding across all 1000 Monte Carlo scenarios, with the Survival Override activating predictively to prevent battery depletion. The full-horizon MILP (96 steps, 769 decision variables) is solved in 11.94 s on standard hardware, confirming a 75 × real-time feasibility margin for the 15-minute dispatch cycle. Comparison against a conventional, non-mission-aware MPC baseline confirms that the mission-parameterized design is essential for tactical contexts. Specifically, without mission-aware constraints, a conventional MPC operates the generator for 7.5 h within acoustic stealth windows, which ultimately renders silent-watch operation infeasible.