Socio-demographic and waste system determinants of recycling performance across Australian municipalities: a spatial analysis highlighting urban and regional differences

Increases in municipal waste generation is a persistent global problem, prompting the adoption of ambition recycling targets across all levels of government. Municipal recycling relies on the cooperation of households to carry out primary waste separation, however recycling rates remain low. Identifying the determinants of recycling behaviour is therefore essential to inform targeted interventions to improve municipal-level recycling. While international research identifies socioeconomic, demographic and waste system determinants of municipal recycling performance, few studies account for spatial heterogeneity, including spatially varying relationships and differences between urban and regional settings. This study explores how socio-demographic and waste system characteristics influence household separate collection rates (SCR) of recyclables across municipalities in New South Wales (NSW), Australia using 2021-22 census and waste system data with multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). Findings show SCR is strongly influenced by convenience and accessibility of kerbside non-recyclable waste collection systems, which suppress SCR as households tend to favour more accessible disposal options, which is more apparent in regional areas. Access to co-mingled food and garden organics (FOGO) collection and if municipalities were subject to waste levy charges, were strong positive determinants; with FOGO raising awareness of correct household source separation behaviours, and the levy driving investment in landfill minimisation. Spatial analysis highlighted some influencing factors such as education having global effects, while others vary across different locales, reflecting demographic and infrastructure differences especially between urban and regional settings. These findings highlight the need for place-based, adaptive interventions to improve recycling outcomes across diverse local government contexts. • MGWR outperforms global models in explaining recycling rates across NSW, Australia. • Convenient mixed waste collection reduces recycling especially in regional areas. • FOGO and waste levy improve recycling through awareness and system investment. • Recycling determinants vary by location and operate at different spatial scales. • Place-based strategies are needed to improve recycling across diverse municipalities.