Integrated assessment of invasion risk: coupling habitat suitability, population abundance and ecosystem service value for <i>Xanthium spinosum</i> in China

Abstract Traditional species distribution models often have limitations in capturing invasion intensity, which reduces their effectiveness for invasive species management. To address this gap, we developed an integrated framework combining habitat suitability, population abundance, and ecosystem service value (ESV) risk assessment for Xanthium spinosum in China. Results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity, with high suitability areas concentrated along the Shanxi–Shaanxi–Gansu–Ningxia–Inner Mongolia border and high abundance areas mainly in the Ili Valley and central Inner Mongolia. Key environmental drivers of invasion included annual precipitation, warmest quarter precipitation, human footprint, and topsoil pH. ESV risk assessment projected substantial ecological and economic losses, with the greatest impacts on food production and climate regulation. High-risk areas for ESV overlap with high suitability and abundance regions, highlighting the urgent need for targeted management strategies. This study provides a robust, evidence-based framework to guide invasive species management in ecologically fragile and economically critical regions.