Sleep timing irregularity in midlife: association with incident major adverse cardiac events and cardiovascular disease mortality over a 10-year follow-up

Sleep timing reflects daily routines and lifestyle patterns, which influence cardiovascular health through circadian mechanisms that regulate cardiovascular processes. Wearable devices enable sensor-based assessment of sleep timing, offering insights into daily behavior. This cohort study examined how the regularity of wearable device–determined sleep timing (bedtime, wake-up time, and sleep midpoint) predicts incident major adverse cardiac event (MACE) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality over a 10-year follow-up in midlife. The study included 3,231 participants (39.5% men) from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 who attended the 46-year follow-up in 2012–2014. Participants were followed until December 31, 2023, or until a MACE (acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, stroke, heart failure hospitalization, or CVD death) or were censored due to moving abroad or dying from a non-cardiovascular cause. Sleep timing regularity was assessed via 7-day standard deviation for bedtime, wake-up time, and sleep midpoint, categorized into tertiles: regular, fairly regular, and irregular. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for gender, employment status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total physical activity. Analyses were stratified by sleep duration below or above the group median (7 h 56 min). In total, 128 participants (4.0%) experienced MACEs during the follow-up period. Irregular sleep timing was associated with an elevated risk, but this association was observed only among participants whose sleep period was shorter than the group median. Individuals with irregular bedtimes had a 2.01-fold higher risk of MACEs compared to those with regular bedtimes (HR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.00–4.01, p = 0.049), and those with irregular sleep midpoints had a 2.00-fold higher risk compared to those with regular midpoints (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.01–3.98, p = 0.048). Among the participants with sleep durations under eight hours, irregular sleep timing was a significant risk factor for MACEs. Specifically, variability in bedtime and sleep midpoint, but not in wake-up time, was associated with increased risk. These findings highlight the importance of consistent sleep behavior, particularly regular bedtimes, as a potential target for health promotion.