Emission reduction potential of freeway stop-and-go wave smoothing

The real-world potential of stop-and-go wave smoothing at scale remains largely unquantified. Smoothing freeway waves requires opening a gap large enough for them to dissipate, but that gap is often impractically large. We propose a counterfactual wave-smoothing benchmark that reconstructs a smooth, feasible trajectory from each empirical trajectory by solving a quadratic program with fixed boundary conditions and a maximum-gap constraint, and we use the MOVES model to estimate the resulting emission reduction potential. Applying the framework to nine weeks of weekday peak-period data from the I-24 MOTION testbed, which exhibits rich day-to-day variation in wave dynamics, we find meaningful potential for passenger cars under a 0.1-mile maximum-gap constraint: average CO 2 reductions of 9.80% to 14.08% across lanes, with 12.94% to 25.70% in CO, 24.29% to 29.76% in HC, and 29.40% to 36.03% in NOx. Trucks emerge as particularly attractive targets, showing roughly twice the reduction potential of passenger cars.