Impacts of Extreme Events on Community Livelihoods: El Niño Effects and Management of Seaweed Farms in the South Coast of Kenya

ABSTRACT Seaweed farming is a vital economic activity for coastal communities in the Western Indian Ocean, with growing potential in food, bio‐stimulants, pharmaceuticals and environmental management. Some farmed species, such as Eucheuma denticulatum and Kappaphycus alvarezii , are known to be sensitive to extreme weather events such as El Niño rains, with direct implications for production and livelihoods. This study assessed the impacts of the November–December 2023 El Niño event on seaweed farms in three villages (Kibuyuni, Tumbe and Bati‐Mwazaro) along the south coast of Kenya. The assessment focused on changes in production, labour requirements and farm management practices. Data were collected through face‐to‐face interviews with 99 seaweed farmers and analysed using quantitative and qualitative approaches. Production was found to have increased steadily from September to November 2023 but declined sharply in December 2023 and January 2024, during and immediately after the El Niño. Farmers in Kibuyuni demonstrated faster recovery and maintained more active ropes in the water, resulting in higher post‐El Niño harvests, whereas Bati‐Mwazaro and Tumbe reported lower yields. Additionally, farm labour shortages were a major constraint across all villages (reported by 98% of respondents in Kibuyuni, 94% in Bati‐Mwazaro and 87% in Tumbe). Kibuyuni farmers had a greater proportion of ropes deployed at sea, whereas Bati‐Mwazaro and Tumbe farmers retained most of their ropes at home, indicating reduced active farm area and slower recovery. These findings show how a single extreme rainfall event can disrupt seaweed value chains, delay recovery over multiple cropping cycles and exacerbate vulnerability in already marginalized coastal villages. The study highlights priority adaptation and management options, including integrated early warning and farming calendars, spatial planning to reduce exposure to flood plumes, strengthened farmer organizations and input supply systems and development of policy instruments for insurance and emergency support to buffer future El Niño shocks.