Anticipatory urban transformations: Informal economies and public space adaptation in Nablus (Palestine)

This study examines the transformation of Martyr's Square roundabout in Nablus, Palestine, following the geopolitical shifts of October 2023, focusing on the emergence and impact of informal economies in public spaces during periods of conflict. Through a mixed-methods approach combining spatial analysis, observational research, and stakeholder interviews, this paper investigates how informal economic activities reshape urban spaces in anticipation of and response to geopolitical tensions. The research reveals how unauthorised stalls and informal markets have reconfigured the physical, environmental, and economic dynamics of the Dawar , serving as mechanisms for community resilience while presenting new challenges for urban governance. By examining these transformations through the lens of anticipatory urbanism, the study addresses a critical gap in understanding how public spaces adapt in uncertain times, particularly considering the experiences of vulnerable populations. The findings contribute to both theoretical discussions of adaptation and resilience, as well as practical policy considerations, offering insights into how cities can balance the immediate needs of informal economy actors with long-term goals of equitable public space access. This research advances our understanding of urban adaptation in conflict-affected regions while providing recommendations for inclusive urban planning policies that promote social cohesion under uncertain conditions. • The urban dynamics in Dawar reveal the tension between formal governance and informal economies, highlighting street vendors as adaptive practitioners whose strategies could inform inclusive regulatory frameworks. • Informal economies in Dawar emerge as survival strategies for marginalised populations during instability, echoing global patterns of resilience. • The tension between municipal efforts to regulate public spaces and the bottom-up claims of street vendors underscores the need to balance urban order with socio-economic realities.