Entrepreneurship as active inference

Purpose This paper reconceptualizes entrepreneurship as a unified inferential process that integrates cognition and action under uncertainty, thereby dissolving longstanding tensions including causation versus effectuation and discovery versus creation. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on active inference, the paper develops a conceptual framework that integrates perceptual updating and environmental intervention within a unified action–perception process. Findings The analysis shows that entrepreneurship can be understood as a unified inferential process in which cognition and action constitute complementary strategies for minimizing expected surprise under uncertainty. This process-level perspective dissolves longstanding tensions in the entrepreneurship literature, including causation versus effectuation and opportunity discovery versus creation. Opportunities are consequently redefined as venues for future surprise reduction that are actively inferred through entrepreneurial engagement. Finally, entrepreneurs are distinguished by the material exposure, temporal depth and recursive social character of their inferential processes, with entrepreneurial success reflecting mastery of second-person active inference through progressively modelling and reshaping the expectations of other agents. Originality/value This paper offers one of the first systematic integrations of active inference into entrepreneurship, providing a unified framework that reframes opportunities and dissolves a central theoretical tension.