Comparative Study of Four Hybrid Spatiotemporal Models for Daily PM2.5 Prediction in the Chengdu–Chongqing Region

The Chengdu–Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle (CC-TCEC), located in the Sichuan Basin, frequently experiences persistent winter PM2.5 pollution due to basin-constrained ventilation and strong meteorology–emission coupling. Using daily PM2.5 observations from 113 monitoring stations with a strict two-year training and one-year testing split, we develop hybrid spatiotemporal forecasting models that couple a graph neural network (GCN/GAT) for inter-station spatial dependence learning with a temporal backbone (LSTM/Transformer) for evolving concentration dynamics. We adopt a rolling one-day-ahead forecasting scheme using a 7-day look-back window. Across 12-month, 6-month, and 3-month evaluation windows, the meteorology-augmented Multi-GAT-Transformer shows a slight but consistent advantage over the other tested variants, suggesting potential benefits of attention-based spatial weighting and long-range temporal self-attention under nonstationary basin pollution regimes. Spatiotemporal mappings derived from the best-performing configuration suggest that elevated winter PM2.5 is mainly associated with low-lying areas such as the Chengdu Plain, industry clusters, and dense urban cores, with peaks that also coincide with the New Year and the pre-Lunar New Year period, suggesting a possible contribution from elevated traffic and production activity. These impacts are amplified by winter stagnation (low winds, high humidity, limited precipitation). From a policy perspective, the results support sustainability-oriented winter haze management by enabling early episode warning and hotspot prioritization.