Spatiotemporal evolution and predictive analysis of educational resource allocation efficiency in Shandong Province

Ensuring equitable and efficient allocation of educational resources is critical for advancing high-quality compulsory education, particularly in large, internally diverse provinces like Shandong, China. This study addresses critical gaps in understanding spatiotemporal efficiency dynamics by developing an integrated analytical framework. We evaluate the static and dynamic efficiency (2018–2023), coupling coordination with regional economic resilience, and future trends (2024-2030) of compulsory education resource allocation across Shandong’s 16 prefecture-level cities. The framework uniquely combines the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model, Malmquist index (MI), Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM), and Fractional-order Grey Model (FGM). Key findings reveal: (1) Persistent and widening regional disparities in static efficiency, with an overall declining provincial average indicating systemic deterioration risk; (2) Marginal yet unstable TFP growth, primarily driven by technological progress, but undermined by emerging scale inefficiency, exacerbated post-pandemic; (3) A distinct “high in East Shandong, low in Southwest Shandong” spatial pattern in education-economy coupling coordination, with core-periphery divergence intensifying over time. These results underscore an “efficiency trap” where sustained investment fails to translate into systemic efficiency gains due to economic resilience thresholds. The study emphasizes the necessity for spatially differentiated policies targeting region-specific bottlenecks. It provides a comprehensive methodological framework and empirical evidence to inform targeted resource optimization strategies, promoting educational equity and sustainable development in Shandong and comparable regions facing significant internal disparities.