Research on the impact of stability in farmland transfer-in rights on green production among cotton farmers

Promoting the green transformation of micro-level agricultural operators and fostering a resource-efficient and environmentally friendly model of modern agricultural development are both fundamental requirements for ecological civilization and essential pathways toward high-quality agricultural development. Based on field surveys conducted in Xinjiang, China’s primary cotton-producing region, this study examines the stability of farmland transfer-in rights and its impact on cotton farmers’ green production. By constructing a counterfactual framework and employing Propensity Score Matching (PSM) for empirical analysis, the study yields the following key findings: First, farmland transfer and land contract disputes significantly suppress the level of green production among cotton farmers, whereas land tenure security and formal contractual arrangements significantly enhance it. Second, from a heterogeneity perspective, the stabilizing effect of farmland transfer-in rights on green production is more pronounced among farmers with higher income levels, medium to large-scale operations, and those in the younger and middle-aged cohorts. Third, mechanism tests show that land transfer, farmland registration, signing written contracts, and the absence of dispute incidents can promote cotton farmers’ long-term investments, thereby positively influencing their green production behaviors. In light of these findings, the study proposes several policy recommendations: enhancing the stability of farmland transfer-in rights to lay a solid foundation for green production, adopting targeted strategies that account for farmer heterogeneity to promote green practices, and strengthening long-term investment incentive mechanisms to support sustainable agricultural development.