Robustness of AIC-Based AR Order Selection in HRV Analysis

This study systematically examines the robustness of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) in determining the optimal order (p) of an autoregressive (AR) model applied to the RR interval time series of the PhysioNet healthy subject database. The AR approach is widely used to estimate the power spectral density (PSD) of heart rate variability (HRV), and accurate order selection is essential for model stability and reliable spectral estimation. Although the AIC is designed to balance model fit and complexity, it suffers from the problem of arbitrary model selection. This study provides a quantitative robustness analysis of information-criterion-based AR order selection under controlled expansion of the search space. Specifically, we investigated the behavior of the AIC using the PhysioNet database (N = 1257) under conditions where the maximum search order was set to an excessively high value (p = 50), far exceeding the commonly recommended range. Our analysis suggested that the AR model began to capture subtle noise and nonstationary components rather than the intrinsic HRV structure, leading to overfitting and excessive order selection, resulting in false peaks in the PSD and reduced robustness. In conclusion, order decisions based solely on information criteria such as the AIC become unstable when the search range is too large. To ensure robustness, it is recommended to complement the AIC with more stringent criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or Final Prediction Error (FPE), in addition to the traditional maximum order restriction.