Spatial heterogeneity of the association between fine particulate matter and lung cancer incidence in Hebei Province

Background Long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) can increase the population’s risk of lung cancer incidence. This study aims to further analyze the spatial heterogeneity in the association between PM 2.5 and lung cancer incidence. Methods This study utilized lung cancer incidence data (2015–2022), PM 2.5 concentrations, and other covariates from ten cities in Hebei Province. By comparing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models, it aimed to comprehensively assess the spatial heterogeneity in the association between PM 2.5 and lung cancer incidence. Results For every 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 concentration, the overall relative risk (RR) of lung cancer incidence in Hebei Province was 1.079 (95% CI: 1.054–1.104). The RR associated with each 10 μg/m³ increment in PM 2.5 varied geographically, ranging from 1.026 to 1.086 across the study area, demonstrating a spatial pattern characterized by higher RR values in the north and lower values in the south. Notably, in regions with lower baseline PM 2.5 concentrations, the same incremental increase in PM 2.5 (10 μg/m³) was associated with a greater elevation in lung cancer risk. Conclusion The association between PM 2.5 and lung cancer incidence varies spatially across cities in Hebei Province. This suggests that, while continuing to emphasize air quality improvement in heavily polluted areas, governments and administrative authorities should also address regions with lower pollution levels. Tailored air quality management strategies and targeted allocation of healthcare resources should be implemented according to local conditions.