Trend Analysis of Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Major Turkish Cities Under Climate Change

This study analyzes heat waves (HWs), cold spells (CSs), and mean temperature trends in Türkiye’s three major metropolises (Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir) using long-term station data. HW and CS events were defined via a percentile-based threshold approach, utilizing daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature data from a total of 15 meteorological stations. Temporal trends in annual and seasonal wave frequencies, alongside mean temperature series, were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The findings indicate that HW frequencies have significantly increased across the majority of stations, whereas CS frequencies have decreased at most locations. It was determined that while HWs predominantly concentrate in summer and CSs in winter, heat extremes can extend into transitional seasons. Mean temperatures exhibit a statistically significant upward trend across all stations. Furthermore, HWs have become more prominent and CSs have dissipated more rapidly in urban and coastal stations. These results reveal that the risk of heat extremes is escalating while cold extreme events are weakening in Türkiye’s major cities due to warming climate conditions.