From Monitoring Data to Management Decisions: Causal Network Analysis of Water Quality Dynamics Using CEcBaN

Effective water resource management requires understanding the causal mechanisms driving water quality dynamics, yet extracting actionable insights from complex multivariate monitoring data remains a persistent challenge. This study presents CEcBaN (CCM-ECCM-Bayesian Networks), a decision-support tool that integrates Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) for detecting dynamical coupling, Extended CCM (ECCM) for identifying temporal lags and causal directionality, and Bayesian network (BN) modeling for probabilistic scenario-based inference. The tool was designed to enable managers and researchers without programming expertise to reconstruct causal networks from routine monitoring data, distinguish direct from indirect effects, and evaluate intervention scenarios. CEcBaN was validated using four synthetic datasets with known causal structures, achieving superior specificity (0.83) and edge count accuracy (25% error) compared to Transfer Entropy (0.47 specificity, 139% error), Granger causality (0.82, 39% error), and the PC algorithm (0.83, 46% error). Application to Lake Kinneret, Israel, demonstrated the tool’s utility across three water quality challenges: (1) nitrogen cycling, where the nitrification pathway was reconstructed and seasonal stratification was identified as a key modulator (accuracy 0.931); (2) thermal dynamics, where a transition from atmosphere-driven to internally regulated heat transfer during stratification was revealed (2.1-fold increase in coupling strength); and (3) cyanobacterial bloom prediction, where prior phytoplankton community composition provided a 4–6-week early warning window (accuracy 0.846). CEcBaN advances causal inference in water resource management by making these analytical methods accessible through an intuitive interface.