Wildfire Risk Assessment in the Mediterranean Under Climate Change

This study presents a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment framework for Rhodes Island, Greece, aimed at quantifying the impacts of climate change on hazard levels and vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean environment. The approach integrates Fire Weather Index (FWI) data, detailed fuel-type mapping, and multiple vulnerability indicators covering ecological, socioeconomic, and population factors, enabling spatially explicit estimates of current and future wildfire risk. Historically, Rhodes mostly faces moderate wildfire risk, mainly in central and northeastern regions, with localised areas of higher risk near settlements and key economic sites. Climate forecasts for 2025–2049 predict a notable increase in hazard, with areas experiencing extreme fire weather (FWI > 50) increasing from 15.19% to 66–72%, across all emission scenarios. Ecological vulnerability is particularly alarming, as 93% of the island is already highly susceptible; fire-prone forest and agricultural zones are expected to move into the highest ecological risk categories, especially in the central mountain areas. The devastating 2023 wildfire, which burned over 17,600 hectares, caused more than €5.8 million in direct damages and led to the largest evacuation in the island’s history, closely aligning with high-risk zones modelled in the framework. An important insight is the limited spatial variation in near-future risk between RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, indicating that significant wildfire intensification is largely unavoidable by mid-century, emphasising the urgent need for quick adaptation and risk mitigation efforts for Mediterranean critical infrastructure and communities.