Spatio-Temporal Evolution of NPP, Vegetation Characteristics, and Multi-Model, Multi-Scenario Predictions in the Shaanxi Section of the Qinling Mountains, China

The Shaanxi section of the Qinling Mountains serves as a critical ecological transition zone and security barrier between northern and southern China. Monitoring the dynamics of its vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is essential for understanding regional carbon cycling and informing ecological management strategies. This study integrates three complementary analytical frameworks: the Mann–Kendall test combined with the Theil–Sen slope for linear trend extrapolation (MK-Theil-Sen), mechanistic simulation (CASA model), and machine learning (random forest). First, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of NPP from 2000 to 2023. Then, based on three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, SSP585), we projected NPP changes for 2030–2050 and compared results across different models and scenarios. The key findings are as follows: ① From 2000 to 2023, NPP in the Shaanxi section of the Qinling Mountains exhibited a fluctuating upward trend with a cumulative increase of 16.7%. Spatially, it showed a pattern of “higher in the south, lower in the north; higher in the west, lower in the east”. ② Multiple models predict continued NPP growth, though the magnitude remains uncertain. Mechanistic models, incorporating climate stress factors, yield relatively conservative projections. ③ Emission scenarios significantly influence future trends, with low-emission pathways (SSP119) favoring NPP enhancement and extended growing seasons. ④ Different vegetation types exhibit varying responses to scenario changes: broadleaf forests show the highest sensitivity, while grasslands and meadows demonstrate strong climate stability across models, with cultivated vegetation exhibiting intermediate sensitivity. This study provides comprehensive scientific references for regional ecological security assessment and adaptive management through historical analysis and multi-model, multi-scenario projections of NPP in the Shaanxi section of the Qinling Mountains.