Understanding Ingroup Identification and Intergroup Threat Dynamics in Multiethnic Contexts

People’s tendency to perceive groups they do not belong to as potentially threatening, even when no actual threat exists, aligns with the fact that humans are social beings who highly identify with their groups. However, the perception of threat can severely damage social relationships, making it crucial to understand why and how it occurs in specific contexts. Hence, the aim of this study was to examine the longitudinal interplay between ethnic identity and ethnonationalism as different types of ingroup identification, along with various forms of intergroup threat. We also examined the moderating role of majority/minority group status and post-conflict/non-conflict multiethnic research contexts. The study was carried out at two time points, a year apart, and involved 852 adolescents (age range: 12–20; Mage = 15.69, SDage = 1.77) from Croatia. The structural equation modeling (SEM) results suggest a reciprocal relationship between identity and the perception of threat. We found that experienced intergroup anxiety at T1 has a strong positive effect on ethnonationalism at T2. Furthermore, participants with a stronger ethnonationalism at T1 experienced higher levels of symbolic threat at T2, and a stronger perception of symbolic threat at T1 led to greater ethnic identification at T2. Contrary to our expectations, the relationships between variables operate in the same way across groups, regardless of group status and intergroup context. We discuss how this interplay between ingroup identification and intergroup threat affects the intergroup relations of adolescents in multiethnic contexts.