Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Demography: The Case of European Countries

This paper examines the application of agent-based modeling in the demographic analysis of European countries, with a particular focus on the relationship between demographic processes, economic dynamics, and the sustainability of pension systems. The objective of the study is to demonstrate—based on an interdisciplinary review of research on agent-based modeling, dynamic microsimulation, spatial population models, and large-scale agent-based economic models—how individual household decisions regarding fertility, migration, labor market participation, and retirement aggregate into observable macro-level trends such as population aging, shifts in age structure, and increasing pressure on social security systems in Europe. As an empirical background, the study draws on statistical data on fertility, mortality, migration, age structure, and pension expenditures in European Union countries, as well as long-term projections of demographic and fiscal indicators up to 2070. An analytical comparison is conducted between the results of key agent-based models reproducing household behavior, migration decisions, and pension system dynamics, and aggregated indicators from Eurostat and scenarios presented in the Ageing Report. The findings show that the agent-based approach makes it possible to move beyond traditional cohort-component and macroeconomic models by refining the role of heterogeneity and network effects, identifying spatial differentiation in aging processes, and assessing the sensitivity of pension systems to reform parameters while accounting for heterogeneous behavioral responses. The paper also discusses methodological limitations related to data requirements, model validation, and the complexity of interpretation for policymakers, and outlines prospects for integrating agent-based models with official forecasting frameworks to support the development of demographic and social policy in the European Union.