System Dynamics Approach to Global Shipping Emissions

This paper presents an improved System Dynamics (SD) model to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures between 2023 and 2050 at the container terminal of the Port of Koper. The new model builds on previous models and includes several subsystems that take into account many decarbonisation instruments such as the electrification of facilities, the introduction of alternative fuels (ammonia, methanol, hydrogen, biofuels) and onshore power supply (OPS). The simulation results show that emissions can be reduced by 88.6% by 2050, mainly through harbour equipment. The model follows the dynamics of the S-curve in the introduction and estimation of throughput growth in reality. Decarbonisation has not been fully completed but can be advanced with future technologies such as carbon capture for additional emission reductions. The study proves that dynamic modelling is efficient in long-term sustainability planning and provides a scalable model that can be used by other ports wishing to meet the IMO 2050 targets.