Surrogate-Assisted Techno-Economic Optimization to Reduce Saltwater Disposal via Produced-Water Valorization: A Permian Basin Case Study

Produced-water (PW) management in the Permian Basin faces tightening injection constraints, induced seismicity concerns, and volatile saltwater disposal (SWD) costs. At the same time, chemistry-rich PW contains dissolved constituents (e.g., Li, B, and Sr) that may be valorized if SWD recovery performance and market conditions support favorable techno-economics. Here, we develop an integrated decision-support framework that couples (i) chemistry-informed surrogate models for unit process performance (recovery, effluent quality, and energy/chemical intensity) with (ii) a network-based allocation model that routes PW from sources through pretreatment, optional treatment and mineral-recovery modules (e.g., desalination and direct lithium extraction), and end-use nodes (beneficial reuse, hydraulic fracturing reuse, mineral recovery/valorization, or Class II disposal). This is a screening-level demonstration using publicly available chemistry percentiles and representative pilot-reported performance windows; it is not a site-specific facility design or a bankable TEA for a particular operator. The optimization is posed as a tri-objective problem—to maximize expected net present value, minimize SWD, and minimize an injection-risk indicator R—subject to mass balance, capacity, quality, and regulatory constraints. Uncertainty in commodity prices, recovery fractions, and operating costs is propagated via Monte Carlo scenario sampling, yielding PARETO-efficient portfolios that quantify trade-offs between profitability and risk mitigation. Using the PW chemistry percentiles reported by the Texas Produced Water Consortium for the Delaware and Midland Basins, we derive screening-level break-even lithium concentrations and illustrate how lithium-carbonate-equivalent price and recovery govern the extent to which mineral revenue can offset SWD expenditures. Comparative brine benchmarks (Smackover Formation and Salton Sea geothermal systems) contextualize the Permian’s generally lower-Li PW and highlight transferability of the workflow across brine types. The proposed framework provides a transparent, extensible basis for design matrix planning under evolving injection limits, enabling risk-aware PW management strategies that reduce disposal dependence while improving water resilience.